Ludda Ludwig and Roisin Commane were coauthors on a publication in Nature Climate Change released in October 2019 titled “Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region.” This study was a large collaboration from the Permafrost Carbon Network that synthesized more than 1,000 on-the-ground observations of monthly CO2 emissions. These data are particularly difficult to collect in arctic winters. The cold and darkness can prevent the operation and powering of instrumentation, and the remote locations make it difficult to install and maintain flux systems. The study estimates a contemporary loss of 1.7 million metric tons of carbon from the permafrost region during the winter season (October through April). That loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (1.0 million metric tons of carbon taken up per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions in 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions could increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5) but could rise 41% under a business-as-usual emissions scenario (RCP 8.5).
